Coronovirus Hope

Preface

As a preface to this site I must point out that I might not be right. My opinions are, of course, personal, and yours are your own and quite probably different. I have endeavoured to provide true facts based on reliable sources. I'm looking for signs of hope. We all look for hope.

The government's policy in October 2020 is no longer about preventing the NHS from being overwhelmed and saving lives, it's now about testing people to see if they've got Covid-19. How bad can this virus be if you need to be tested to see if you've got it? The NHS was never in danger of being overwhelmed and emergency "Nightingale" hospitals were never needed. The dire predictions by government advisors were wrong - yet they continue in post and make more dire predictions. Although they were wrong first time they might be right second time. But if they're wrong twice and we've been through all this destruction as a consequence, they should be sacked, together with those acted on it without seeking a wider understanding.

We do know a lot more now than we did at the beginning of this epidemic. There is a lot of data from all round the world that shows Covid-19 is in nowhere near as dangerous now as it was in March and April. The final months of 2020 will be interesting, either Covid-19 will overwhelm us or gradually be accepted as endemic. Keep hoping. Check back later - I'll try to keep up to date.

Pandemic and Delusion

Bob cartoon acknowledged There is no doubt that when the WHO declared coronovirus to be a pandemic in early in 2020 there was much concern about the death rate, particularly amongst the elderly. Since those early days the hospitalisations and death rates have tumbled and are now almost negligible. We stayed home, we protected the NHS, we saved lives - and our reward is now more of the same plus "Covid Marshalls" to keep us safe. The idea of zero Covid cases, which now appears to be a pressure, is, quite frankly, impossible in a connected world. No one has yet found a cure for the flu or the common cold. No one can stop people getting older and thus being more likely to die. The idea that we can defeat it is a delusion. [Yes, I know the cartoon is an illusion, not a delusion, but I wanted to allude to it as it shows the impossibility, and no matter how far Johnson goes in the same direction, success will elude him.]

Statistics

Covid Graph Using data provided by the UK government itself we can see that the daily death rate of those dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test in October 2020 is well under 200 people in the whole of the UK, with a population of over 65 million. And as most deaths occur in people with underlying health problems the chances of dying if you're reasonably healthy is negligible, no matter what your age. It's a fact that very few people live to 100. [ If anyone tells you this is all worth it if it saves one life... shoot them! ]

As at Sunday 25/10/2020 this is the official graph of deaths with Covid-19. This is the bottom line - you're very unlikely to die because of Covid-19. Negligible if you're under 60.

Admittedly the graph of deaths does show a very small increase in recent times but this could hardly be called a wave, let alone a spike. Medics have learned a lot in the last 6 months and are much better at saving lives. However, we do not have a companion graph showing the deaths due to the failure of the NHS to provide the normal service to all those of us with other medical needs.

There are more graphs showing official data of hospitalisations etc.. The only one of slight concern is the rise in cases, as determined by testing, but this increase does not yet have a corresponding rise in hospitalisations so it needs to be treated with caution. The increase in cases detected must, at least in part, be due the huge increase in testing.

Another interesting link on statistics is this summary of a pilot study into the efficacy of vitamin D. [ It refers to the original document here ]. Again this gives more hope and it's surprising that there aren't more people trying to prove or disprove it.

It's not an unreasonable question to ask whether, with the lack of other patients, the NHS might be keen to fill a few beds and ICUs with those on a lower threshold. Yes, that's a cynical question but I've been around long enough to know politicians are not all honest and NHS staff are not allowed to speak freely. Time will tell.

As most governments all around the world are behaving in similar ways, this is a classic example of "groupthink". Most politicians are looking at what's being decided in neighbouring countries and following suit. If they don't they are mocked by the press. Indeed there are a lot of adverse comments in the press about the Swedish policy of NO lockdown. Sweden has achieved pretty much the same outcome as most other European countries but without an enforced lockdown, just lots of commonsense caution.

More graphs from around the world.

Epidemiology

If you're interested in an optimistic view of epidemics you could watch this YouTube video or this one published on 4th October 2020. To be fair, there are challenges to this optimism. There are others who say the author has been selective in the data used. Although nothing is certain, you should hope it will play out in the coming months. In fact October 2020 will either prove the doom-mongers right or they should have their credentials removed...

Emergency Powers

The government has taken on "emergency powers" that enables a small cohort to make up rules without wider reference. Decisions are made that ignore the wealth of evidence indicating their inappropriateness. Decisions are being made by ministers chosen for their passion for Brexit rather than any proven skills in the departments they run. These decisions on local lockdowns are often challenged by local leaders who are much wiser.

Who's suffering?

Although all generations are suffering, it's the youngest who will suffer most and longest. The younger they are the more years they will be paying back this huge debt incurred just to keep us oldies going a bit longer. This is not just a huge debt, it is an unprecedented debt that will inevitably lead to unforeseen consequences.

I am 73 years old and thus more likely to die if I get Covid-19 than people younger than me. I'm questioning the UK government's doctrinaire policies that hurt so many people yet have not fixed the problem they fear. Their policies have destroyed so many things I hold dear and have enjoyed in my latter years - live entertainment, social interaction, foreign holidays etc. All gone.

It's unreasonable to assume that all old people want to live in continuum, in these unpleasant circumstances of lockdown and deprivation and, in some cases, not even aware of being alive. Normal health maintenance has been abandoned. It's very sad. Personally, I'd rather my children and grandchildren were free to enjoy their lives and I'll take my chances, cautiously, in that same freedom. I'm not greedy for a few more years of old age at such a huge cost to them.

If people aren't ill enough to need hospital treatment and are not dying in their thousands there must be questions about why we are being made to suffer so much to avoid NOT being dead.

We're NOT in this together

The worst, the very worst of the political drives is to encourage people to snitch on others if they're not following the very latest diktat. What better way is there of achieving control of society than setting people against people, with anonymity that ensures you SUSPECT EVERYONE. Who's the quisling? Who can you trust? Was it a neighbour or a passer-by? Does the government not understand that it's creating a 1984 society? What would George Orwell say? Everyone is encouraged and empowered to agree with the government - but liable for punishment if they disagree. Hey, what country is this?.

Return to normal

The quickest way to return to normal is for the government to admit that lockdown measures have no proven success in reducing deaths, then admit that this virus is not as deadly as first thought and encourage people to remove their masks but take care and be responsible. Those who are worried can take their own precautions. Let's hope this virus has run its course.