Winning Dice - Your Settings
The idea behind this illustration is to show what could happen if you chose betting to provide a significant income.
You would set:
The figures in the boxes are just suggestions. Change them as you wish.
If you exceed any of your limits you will need to start again.
This app was originally inspired by my attempts to see how computers could beat the bookies. As you will see it's not easy and even if you can find favourable odds (which will be impossible for something as simple as a dice) you can still end up broke.
There is a contact form if you would like to make comments or ask questions.
I wish you luck - you'll need it.
Level bets are calculated to make the target income using the annual number of bets and winning once in every 6 rolls.
So if you aim to make 6,000 in a year placing 60 bets at 5/1, you would expect to win one in six rolls, i.e. you win on 60/6 occasions, which is 10 wins in the year. You'll need to win 600 on each of these 10 wins.
You need to place bets of 120 so that you win 5 x 120 on each of your wins.
Unfortunately, at 5/1 you will lose as much as you win and after many years should have broken even.
Variable bets are intended to make you a guaranteed income by winning a known amount and clearing all previous losses.
So if you aim to make 6,000 in a year placing 60 bets at 5/1, you would expect to win one in six rolls, i.e. win on 60/6 occasions, which is 10 wins in the year. You'll need to win 600 on each of these 10 wins, PLUS you need to recover previous losses, so you aim to win £600 + the deficit in your account.
So if your account shows -1,000 you need to place a bet to win 1600, which at 5/1 would be £320
For the purposes of this app your wagers are deals between you and the bookie.
You're accepting the odds offered by the bookmaker on the chance of rolling a certain number. In most gambling - especially on sporting events - it is not possible to be so precise about the real probability of success. Nevertheless, the possibility exists for any horse/person/team to win or for any event to happen. The skill comes in finding the probability of that and buying at odds better than that probability.
A wager at 5/1 means you'll place six bets of 1 and on the last bet you will win 5 plus your stake of 1 and thus, over six bets, you have won nothing and lost nothing. After 300 years of placing bets every day that's exactly where you'll be - NOT richer but NOT poorer.
A wager at 6/1 would find you in profit overall but you will need to manage long streaks of losing. If you're using variable bets, you could find the size of bet impossible when you need to recover a run of losses. If you're using level bets you're much safer but still could find problems after a long losing streak.
A wager at 4/1 - which any bookmaker still in business might be offering - makes you definitely a LOSER!
The Account supplies the funds for your bets. It starts at zero. It is recalculated after every bet, usually going downwards. You would like it to go up but effectively it's your level of debt and this is what you set as your limit of debt.
Using level bets it might never be restored to zero. This is because you are not aiming to cover previous losses - you are simply aiming to make your annual target by winning once in every six rolls.
Using variable bets the account is restored to zero every time you win, and, in addition, you make a little profit on your way to your annual target, expecting to win once in every six rolls.
On level bets this is the most you would be in debt. This is the lowest your account would be during the year.
On level bets this is the most you would be in profit. The best your account would be during the year.
On variable bets this is the amount you would have in your pocket at the end of the year.
Every bet is calculated to restore your account to zero and make some money for your pocket. Note that no matter what the odds, you will get the same income from the same number of wins. However, you may need a substantial resource to cover your debts at any odds - as you might see in the next column. I have called this "Pocket" to reflect your profit taken during the year. After each year your Pocket should contain your Annual Target, approximately.
This figure shows maximum debt you could have in the year. The figure is the sum of your losses since your last win. Often, this figure is far beyond possibility and serves to illustrate the inherent flaw of using variable bets.
The number of occurrences of any number on a dice will, after enough rolls, tend towards once in every six rolls. That is, on average, in six rolls, your number will occur once and other numbers will occur on the other five rolls. The number shown here is the actual ratio occuring in this illustration. It is as true to life as you could expect. After many years this should tend to exactly 1/5. It may take over 40,000 rolls for this to stabilise.
Using variable bets to recover previous losses and make a small profit cannot work unless you have many millions available and your target profit is comparatively small.
Buying at your chosen odds using variable bets you would have needed funds beyond your limit.
This is the bet you need to place to recover previous losses and make your small profit. If you watch this figure after each year's betting, you will soon realise the impossibility of this method. If you were rich enough to be betting this way, the annual income would not be sufficient to pay your domestic bills. Sooner or later you will need to place a bet that no one will accept!
This app will later link to a website to tell about your best performance - and maybe there will be a blog.
Your annual target is what you would like to achieve in a year.
Using level bets at 5/1 you are very unlikely to reach that target. Using variable bets at any odds there is a possibility that you could reach your annual target some years BUT you will LOSE EVERYTHING sooner or later!
Obviously you could bet on a rolling dice hundreds of time each day, but this app is aimed more at the punter who studies form and places just a few careful bets each week.
As with the bets per week this app is aimed at the punter who dedicates certain weeks to gambling and other weeks to other activities.
You can set the level of your maximum debt. For practical purposes this is limited to 100,000 in this app. This may not seem a lot but in whether this is in GBP, USD or EUR it still represents a pretty big sum that most people could not afford.
The maximum bet accepted by most UK bookmakers is 10,000. Obviously they want to get your money but, at the same time, they need to limit their own exposure. In some cases bookies limit the maximum payout but either way there are limits that prevent you placing very large bets.